Table S2.

Additional sensitivity tests for trophodynamic model inference

Model simulation	Model 1 (r/RMSE/wAIC)	Model 2 (r/RMSE/wAIC)	Model 3 (r/RMSE/wAIC)	Model 4 (r/RMSE/wAIC)
Baseline*	0.466/0.388/0.000	0.644/0.332/0.002	0.755/0.286/0.151	0.791/0.267/0.848
Top 5 catch years	0.485/0.383/0.000	0.652/0.328/0.002	0.761/0.281/0.141	0.798/0.263/0.858
Top 20 catch years	0.446/0.393/0.000	0.640/0.333/0.002	0.750/0.288/0.156	0.787/0.269/0.841
All 61 catch years	0.447/0.387/0.000	0.633/0.332/0.002	0.749/0.285/0.233	0.780/0.270/0.764
ESM2.6 years 41–45	0.466/0.388/0.000	0.644/0.332/0.002	0.753/0.286/0.122	0.792/0.266/0.876
ESM2.6 years 46–50	0.466/0.388/0.000	0.645/0.332/0.003	0.747/0.290/0.117	0.787/0.269/0.880
ESM2.6 years 46–55	0.466/0.388/0.000	0.645/0.332/0.002	0.751/0.288/0.133	0.790/0.268/0.865
ESM2.6 years 41–55	0.466/0.388/0.000	0.645/0.332/0.002	0.752/0.287/0.130	0.791/0.267/0.868
$\overline{\mathrm{TE}}$ from 1 to 4.5	0.466/0.388/0.000	0.643/0.333/0.002	0.755/0.286/0.145	0.791/0.267/0.854
$\overline{\mathrm{TE}}$ from 1 to 5	0.466/0.388/0.000	0.642/0.333/0.001	0.755/0.286/0.139	0.792/0.267/0.859
0.5 benthic NPP	0.466/0.388/0.000	0.637/0.335/0.002	0.758/0.284/0.297	0.783/0.271/0.701
3.0 benthic NPP	0.466/0.388/0.000	0.603/0.349/0.001	0.758/0.283/0.773	0.759/0.283/0.226

Rows are sensitivities, whereas columns provide skill metrics for each model (r, Pearson correlation; RMSE, root-mean-squared error; w_AIC, the Akaike weight). The baseline is the simulation used in the main text (i.e., averaging the top 10 catch years, forcing from years 51–55 of the ESM2.6 simulation, $\overline{\mathrm{TE}}$ in Eq. 5 based on energy transfer through trophic levels 1–4). The “catch year” sensitivities refer to fitting to catch averaged over fewer or more years. The “ESM2.6” sensitivities refer to using plankton food webs from different segments of the ESM2.6 simulation to fit the trophodynamic models. The $\overline{\mathrm{TE}}$ sensitivities consider the effect of estimating $\overline{\mathrm{TE}}$ based on energy transfer through trophic levels 1–4.5 or 1–5. The benthic NPP sensitivities consider possible transfers of 0.5 and 3 Pg C⋅y⁻¹ to fish food webs globally (distributed across areas <50 m deep). The best model, according to the Akaike weights, is bolded.

^*Used in paper.