Table 1.
Increases in peak demand dwarf increases in average demand by end of century
| %Δ average hourly load | %Δ peak daily load | %Δ 95th percentile daily peak load | %Δ frequency days w. peak load > current 95th percentile | %Δ frequency days w. peak load > current 99th percentile | |
| Simulation type | Intensity | Intensity | Intensity | Frequency | Frequency |
| RCP 4.5 | |||||
| FERC | 2.8 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 158 | 382 |
| ERCOT | 3.7 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 150 | 460 |
| ISONE | 1.6 | 2 | 7.1 | 103 | 260 |
| NYISO | 2.7 | 3.3 | 8.5 | 128 | 312 |
| PJM | 2.3 | 3.1 | 8 | 133 | 329 |
| Total | 2.8 | 3.5 | 7 | 152 | 374 |
| RCP 8.5 | |||||
| FERC | 8 | 9.7 | 17.2 | 407 | 1, 532 |
| ERCOT | 10.1 | 11.5 | 15.2 | 406 | 1, 634 |
| ISONE | 5 | 6 | 17.7 | 281 | 1, 024 |
| NYISO | 8 | 9.2 | 21.2 | 334 | 1, 230 |
| PJM | 7 | 8.9 | 20.5 | 354 | 1, 347 |
| Total | 7.9 | 9.6 | 17.6 | 395 | 1, 492 |
Column 1 is the projected percent change in hourly generation, column 2 is the projected percent change in daily peak load, column 3 is the projected percent change in the 95th percentile of daily peak load, and columns 4 and 5 are the projected percent change in the number of days with peak load greater than the present-day 95th and 99th percentiles, respectively. Each projection is based on the average projected change in temperature for 19 independent climate models. The five rows display results across five geographic regions of the United States.