Fig. S4.

Assessing the model fit. We used the estimated model to simulate (500 times) forward the transmission path and timings of events (i.e., infection time, onset time, and death time). (A) Comparison of the observed weekly temporal distribution of the cases with that summarized from the simulated data. Gray area represents the 95% C.I., and the black dots and line are the observed data, with 5 of 500 random realizations (colored lines) of the simulated epidemics imposed. We compared the temporal autocorrelations (at lag = 1 and lag = 2) of the observed and simulated epidemics. We also compared the peak height, the growth rate before peak, and decay rate after peak between the observed and simulated (the growth and decay rates correspond to the slopes of best-fitted linear lines to the observed or simulated data). Dotted lines represent the values of the summary statistics corresponding to the observed data. (B) Comparison of the observed spatial autocorrelation and the simulated. Here we used two common measures, Moran’s I and Geary’s C indices (33, 34), which range from −1 to 1 (a value close 1 indicates strong clustering and close to −1 indicates strong dispersion). Dotted lines represent the values of the summary statistics corresponding to the observed data.