Table S4.

Prior and posterior distributions of model parameters

Parameter	Median [95% C.I.]	Prior
${\beta }_a$, infectivity of first age group	0.76 [0.42, 1.39]	U(0,100)
${\beta }_b$, infectivity of second age group	0.07 [0.002, 0.36]	U(0,100)
${\beta }_c$, infectivity of third age group	0.4 [0.1, 0.66]	U(0,100)
${\beta }_d$, infectivity of fourth age group	0.79 [0.27, 1.25]	U(0,100)
${\beta }_e$, infectivity of fifth age group	0.56 [0.23, 0.92]	U(0,100)
$\eta$, spatial kernel parameter	0.42 [0.06, 0.87]	U(0,100)
$\alpha$ (${10}^{-4}$), background hazard	4.6 [0.21, 12]	U(0,100)
$a$, mean of the incubation period	6.87 [5.34, 8.50]	U(0,100)
$b$, SD of the incubation period	4.02 [2.44, 5.44]	U(0,100)
$c$, mean (and SD) of the infectious period	3.96 [3.41, 4.60]	U(0,100)