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The third predictable component in coupled and slab models. Same as in Figs. 1 and 2, except for the third-most predictable component. The black curve in C shows the observed 1-y-smoothed Nino3.4 index; the correlation between each projected time series and the observed ENSO index is indicated in the parentheses after “slab” and “coupled” in the right legend, and the correlation between coupled and slab projected time series is indicated in the bottom right legend.
