Fig. 3.

Geographical cross-validation of the models: predictions for the monthly number of VL cases in each district from fitting the models to the other 7 districts and using the fitted models to predict the cases in the censored district. The CARE data are presented with black dots and the lines present the predictions of models E0 (red), E1 (green) and W (blue) between January 2012 and June 2013. The prediction of 0 cases for Begusarai for model W is due to the sandfly-to-human ratio estimated from fitting to the other 7 districts giving a basic reproduction number below 1 (so that there is no stable endemic equilibrium).