Fig. 4.

VL incidence predictions for each district employing all of the CARE data. The CARE data are presented with black dots and the lines present the predictions between 2010 and 2020 for each model. IRS starts in January 2011, after which IRS coverage remains constant. The difference in the pre-control endemic equilibrium between the Erasmus MC and Warwick models is due to Erasmus MC fitting to historical case data from (Thakur et al., 2013) before fitting to the CARE data and Warwick fitting only to the CARE data. The black dashed line represents the WHO elimination target of <1 VL case per 10,000 population per year. The monthly predictions between January 2012 and June 2013 are also presented in SF3, Fig. S2.