Table 2.

Parameter values and assumptions that are similar across all models.

Parameters	Value*	Source	Reported range	Source
Human parameters
Average duration of symptomatic untreated stage (days)	District and year specific (See SF2)	CARE data	N/A	N/A
Average duration treatment 1 (days)	28	CARE data	N/A	N/A
Average duration treatment 2 (days)	28	CARE data	N/A	N/A
Average duration of putatively recovered stage (months)**	21	(Ramesh et al., 2015, Uranw et al., 2011, Rahman et al., 2010)	21–36	(Ramesh et al., 2015)
Average duration of PKDL (years)**	5	Expert opinion and (Ramesh et al., 2015)	0.5–5	(Ramesh et al., 2015, Islam et al., 2013)
Excess mortality rate among untreated symptomatic cases (per day)	1/150	Assumption
Excess mortality rate among treated symptomatic cases (per day)	1/120	Assumption
Fraction of failed first-line treatments	District-specific (See SF2)	CARE data	N/A	N/A
Fraction of putatively recovered cases that develop PKDL	2.5%	CARE data	2.4%–17%	(Uranw et al., 2011, Islam et al., 2013)
Infectivity of symptomatic untreated cases	1	Reference value	0.02–0.42	(Quinnell and Courtenay, 2009)
Relative infectivity of patients under treatment 1 and 2	0.5	Expert opinion	Unknown
Sandfly parameters
Average life expectancy of the sandfly (days)	14	(Palit et al., 2011)	10–20
Average duration of incubation period in sandflies (days)**	5	(Sacks and Perkins, 1985)	4.7–5.1	(Hurwitz et al., 2011, Hati et al., 1984, Shortt, 1945)
Sandfly biting rate (per day)**	1/4	(Anon., 2016, Hati et al., 1984)	1/5–1/4	(Anon., 2016, Hurwitz et al., 2011, Hati et al., 1984, Palit et al., 2011)
Probability of transmission from an infected sandfly to susceptible human	1	Reference value	N/A

^*Parameter values held fixed in model fitting and predictions unless otherwise stated.

^**Ranges given are for average (median) duration based on the literature. Durations treated as exponentially distributed in models.