Table 3.

Parameter values and assumptions that differ across the models.

Parameter	Value			Source
	Erasmus MC		Warwick
	Model E0	Model E1	Model W
Birth rate (per 1000/yr)	Bihar specific		District-specific (see SF2)	Indian 2011 Census
Mortality rate (per 1000/yr)	Bihar specific, age-dependent		District-specific (see SF2)	Indian 2011 Census
Sandfly birth rate	Stepwise function with 3 month peak in July–Sept		Sinusoidal function with peak in Oct–Nov	(Poché et al., 2011) (E0, E1) (Picado et al., 2010b, Kesari et al., 2014, Ghosh et al., 1999) (W)
Infectivity of PKDL, relative to symptomatic untreated cases	0.5	0.5	N/A	Expert opinion
Duration of immunity (years)	2 (1 and 5 in sensitivity analysis)	2 (1 and 5 in sensitivity analysis)	5	Assumption based on (Le Rutte et al., 2016) (E0,E1) Assumption based on (Chapman et al., 2015) (W)
Average duration of PKDL (years)	5	5	N/A	Expert opinion, (Ramesh et al., 2015)
Sandfly exposure	Age-dependent	Age-dependent	N/A	(Le Rutte et al., 2016)
Duration of early asymptomatic stage (days)	202	202	Early + late = 150	(Le Rutte et al., 2016) (E0, E1) (Chapman et al., 2015) (W)
Duration of late asymptomatic stage (days)	69 days (fitted)	69 days (fitted)
Infectivity of asymptomatic stage	0 (pre-set)	0.0114 (early) 0.0229 (late) (fitted)	0.025	Assumption based on (Stauch et al., 2011) (W)
Fraction of (late stage) asymptomatic individuals who develop VL	0.0142 (fitted)	0.0142 (fitted)	0.03	Assumption based on (Hasker et al., 2014) (W)