Figure 23.

Simulations of the early epidemic growth phase derived from the SIR model based on disease generations described by Equations 7 for different values of the basic reproduction number with a power-law scaling parameter α set at 0.96, just slightly below the homogenous mixing regime (i.e., α = 1), $\gamma =\frac{1}{5}$ and a large population size (N=10⁸). The epidemic simulations start with one infectious individual. Because α < 1, the effective reproduction number according to disease generations, R_g, follows a declining trend towards 1.0. The downward curvature of the case incidence curve in semi-logarithmic scale is also indicative of sub-exponential growth dynamics.