Table 1.
Incidence of post-sustained virologic response (SVR) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development and recurrence
| Author (year), Reference | Major race | Country | Type of anti-HCV therapy | n | Follow-up, median, years | Male sex, n (%) | Age, median, years | Advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis, n (%) | Treatment for previous HCC | Reported HCC incidence in SVR, % (interval in years) | Annual HCC incidence in SVR, % | Reported HCC incidence in non-SVR, % (interval in years) | Annual HCC incidence in non-SVR, % | Study design |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCC development | ||||||||||||||
| Akuta (2011) [34] | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 1273 | 1.1 | 783 (61.5) | 53 | 109 (8.6) | – | 3.2 (5) | 0.65 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Chang (2012) [51] | Asian | Taiwan | IFN-based | 1271 (including 400 non-SVR) | 3.4 | 661 (75.9) | 55.4a | 355 (27.9) | – | 1.2 (3) | 0.4 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Huang (2014) [52] | Asian | Taiwan | IFN-based | 642 | 4.4 | 302 (54.3) | 51.4a | 86 (13.4) | – | 5.8 (5) | 1.2 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Yamashita (2014) [53] | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 562 | 4.8 | 311 (55.3) | 57 | 129 (23.0) | – | 3.1 (5) | 0.63 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Oze (2014) [54] | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 1425 | 3.3 | 727 (51.0) | 54.5 | 118 (11.6) | – | 2.6 (5) | 0.53 | 11.7 (5) | 2.49 | Prospective |
| Toyoda (2015) [55] | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 522 | 7.2 | 292 (55.9) | 50.6 | 27 (5.5) | – | 1.2 (5) | 0.24 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Wang (2016) [56] | Asian | Taiwan | IFN-based | 376 | 7.6 | 185 (49.2) | 54.1 | 127 (33.8) | – | 1.4 (5) | 0.28 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Kobayashi (2016) [57] | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 528 | 7.3 | 308 (58.4) | 54 | 78 (14.8) | – | 2.2 (5) | 0.44 | – | – | Retrospective |
| El-Serag (2016) [36] | Caucasian | USA | IFN-based | 10,738 | 2.8 | 10,232 (95.3) | 53.1a | 1548 (14.4) | – | 0.33 (5) | 0.07 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Nagaoki (2016) [58] | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 1094 | 4.2 | 585 (53.5) | 60 | 208 (1.9) | – | 4.0 (5) | 0.82 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Tada (2016) [59] | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 587 | 14.0 | 324 (55.2) | 50 | – | – | 4.4 (10) | 0.45 | 14.7 (10) | 1.59 | Retrospective |
| Tada (2016) [60] | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 170 | 14.2 | 106 (62.4) | 52.5 | – | – | 7.1 (10) | 0.74 | – | – | Retrospective |
| van der Meer (2016) [61] | Caucasian | Europe and Canada | IFN-based | 1000 | 5.7 | 676 (68.0) | 52.7 | 842 (85.0) | – | 7.6 (8) | 0.99 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Kobayashi (2016) [57] | Asian | Japan | DAAs | 77 | 4.0 | 34 (44.2) | 63 | 23 (29.9) | – | 3.0 (5) | 0.62 | – | – | Retrospective |
| HCC development or recurrence | ||||||||||||||
| Conti (2016) [39] | Caucasian | Italy | DAAs | 344 (59 had previous HCC, including 30 non-SVR) | 0.5 | 207 (60.1) | 63 | 39 (11.3) | Resection, ablation, TACE | 3.2 (0.5)d | 6.3d | – | – | Retrospective |
| Cheung (2016) [24] | Caucasian | UK | DAAs | 317 (18 had previous HCC) | 1.3 | NA | 54 | 254 (80.1) | Resection, ablation, TACE | 5.4 (1.3) | 4.27 | 11.2 (1.3) | 9.14 | Prospective |
| HCC recurrence | ||||||||||||||
| Saito (2014) [62] | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 14 | 3.9 | 13 (92.9%) | 72 | 12 (85.7) | Resection, ablation | 18.0 (3) | 6.62 | 75.3 (3) | 46.61 | Retrospective |
| Huang (2015) [63] | Asian | Taiwan | IFN-based | 56 | 4.4 | 36 (64.3) | 61.6 | 21 (37.5) | Resection, ablation | 43.2b | – | 84.8b | – | Retrospective |
| Kunimoto (2016) [64] | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 40 | 5.1 | 35 (87.5%) | 65 | 14 (35.0) | Resection, ablation | 23.0 (3) | 8.71 | 56.0 (3) | 27.37 | Retrospective |
| Petta (2016) [65] | Caucasian | Italy | IFN-based | 57 | 2.8 | 41 (72.0) | 62 | 0 | Resection, ablation | 15.2 (2) | 8.24 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Minami (2016) [66] | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 38 | – | 27 (71.0) | 66 | 0 | Ablation | 52.9 (2) | 37.6 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Conti (2016) [39] | Caucasian | Italy | DAAs | 59 (including 6 non-SVR) | 0.5 | 40 (67.8) | 72 | 10 (16.9) | Resection, ablation, TACE | 28.8d (0.5) | 49.3d | – | – | Retrospective |
| Reig (2016) [40] | Caucasian | Spain | DAAs | 58 | 0.5 | 40 (69.0) | 66.3 | 5 (8.6) | Resection, ablation, TACE | 27.6d (0.5) | 47.6d | – | – | Retrospective |
| ANRS study group (2016) [42] | Caucasian | France | DAAs | 189 (including 41 non-SVR) | 2.2 | 147 (78.0) | 62a | 152 (80.0) | Resection, ablation, LT | 0.73b,d | 8.76c,d | 0.66b,e | 7.92c,e | Prospective |
| ANRS study group (2016) [42] | Caucasian | France | DAAs | 13 | 1.8 | 11 (85.0) | 61a | 13 (100) | Resection, ablation | 1.1b | 13.3c | 1.7b,e | 20.76c,e | Prospective |
| ANRS study group (2016) [42] | Caucasian | France | DAAs | 314 | – | 257 (82.0) | 61a | 49 (15.6) | LT | 2.2 (0.5) | 4.4 | – | – | Prospective |
| Petta (2016) [65] | Caucasian | Italy | DAAs | 58 | 1.5 | 40 (69.0) | 66.3 | 2 (4.0) | Resection, ablation | 26.3 (2) | 15.3 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Minami (2016) [66] | Asian | Japan | DAAs | 27 | – | 18 (67.0) | 71 | 0 | Ablation | 29.8 (2) | 17.7 | – | – | Retrospective |
When not reported, annual HCC incidence was estimated by using the declining exponential approximation of life expectancy [67]
aMean
b100 person-month
c100 person-year
dIncidence in patients including non-SVR patients
eIncidence in patients not treated by anti-HCV therapy
DAA direct-acting antiviral, HCC hepatocellular carcinoma, HCV hepatitis C virus, IFN interferon, LT liver transplantation, SVR sustained virologic response, TACE transarterial chemoembolization