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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Apr 1.
Published in final edited form as: AIDS. 2017 Apr;31(Suppl 1):S87–S94. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001428

Table 2. Census-Level ANC-RT.

Mean difference (or mean estimate for αRT and δC2) and MAE (Mean Absolute Error) between estimated and “true” value of quantities. Results given for each data scenario at 1, 3, and 5 years of simulated ANC-RT data (except “No ANC-RT”). For “No ANC-RT”, the fit only uses simulated NPS and ANC-UAT data, and does not use simulated ANC-RT data. Each setting (of data scenario and year) uses 50 replicates under different seeds.

Quantity “True” Value ANC-RT Data Scenario Mean Difference (or Mean Estimate) MAE

Years of RT Data Years of RT Data

1 3 5 1 3 5
Prevalence in 2011 (ρ2011) 6.615% No ANC-RT −0.103% 0.450%

Census −0.107% −0.120% 0.097% 0.451% 0.463% 0.419%

Prevalence Change 2010–2011 (ρ2011ρ2010) −0.193% No ANC-RT 0.017% 0.022%

Census 0.018% 0.019% 0.011% 0.022% 0.023% 0.018%

Prevalence in 2016 (ρ2016) 5.738% No ANC-RT −0.052% 0.378%

Census −0.057% −0.072% 0.113% 0.382% 0.390% 0.360%

Prevalence Change 2015–2016 (ρ2016ρ2015) −0.179% No ANC-RT 0.008% 0.014%

Census 0.008% 0.007% 0.001% 0.015% 0.015% 0.013%

Calibration btw UAT and pregnant women (αUAT) 0.2402 No ANC-RT −0.0177 0.0427

Census −0.0152 −0.0121 −0.0269 0.0422 0.0423 0.0436

Non-Sampling Variance of UAT ( δSP2) 0.01301 No ANC-RT 0.00032 0.00360

Census 0.00086 0.00050 0.00078 0.00417 0.00371 0.00437

Calibration btw RT and pregnant women (αRT ) NA Census 0.2315 0.2257 0.2148 NA NA NA

Non-Sampling Variance of Census RT ( δC2) NA Census 0.01455 0.00427 0.00153 NA NA NA