Table 2.
Daily departure probabilities
| Autumn | Spring | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parameter | Estimate | 95% CrI | Estimate | 95% CrI |
| Intercept | -0.25 | -0.46 – 0.04 | 0.39 | -0.05 – 0.82 |
| Surface air temperature | -0.30 | -0.56 – -0.04 | NA | NA |
| Precipitation | 0.14 | -0.05 – 0.32 | 0.02 | -0.47 – 0.46 |
| Surface air pressure | -0.09 | -0.32 – 0.13 | 0.70 | 0.34 – 1.07 |
| Surface wind speed | 0.00 | -0.17 – 0.19 | -0.30 | -0.61 – 0.02 |
| Flow assistance | -0.33 | -0.53 – -0.12 | 0.42 | 0.14 – 0.72 |
| Remaining migration distance | 0.98 | 0.73 – 1.23 | -1.34 | -1.81 – -0.86 |
| Surface air temperature-*-remaining migration distance | -0.83 | -1.11 – -0.57 | NA | NA |
| Precipitation-*-remaining migration distance | 0.07 | -0.13 – 0.25 | 0.06 | -0.48 – 0.57 |
| Surface air pressure-*- remaining migration distance | -0.30 | -0.57 – -0.01 | 0.03 | -0.50 – 0.60 |
| Surface wind speed -*- remaining migration distance | 0.20 | -0.01 – 0.41 | 0.04 | -0.52 – 0.57 |
| Flow assistance-*- remaining migration distance | 0.06 | -0.20 – 0.31 | -0.23 | -0.70 – 0.24 |
| Standard deviation of random factor year (2009 and 2013) | <0.0001 | 0.21 | ||
| Sample size (number of days on migration of all birds) | 694 | 297 | ||
| Marginal R2 | 0.33 | 0.46 | ||
| Conditional R2 | 0.33 | 0.47 | ||
Results of the model on the individual daily departure probability along the migration route for autumn and spring. Environmental variables describe conditions at sunset. In spring, air temperature was collinear with remaining migration distance and therefore air temperature was removed from the model. Estimates and 95% CrI are given for each environmental variable. 95% CrI not including zero are given in bold. More details, including scale parameter to assess overdispersion, goodness of fit, etc., are given in Additional file 4