Table 3. Comparison of the Discrimination and Reclassification of Different Readmission Models*.
Model Name | C-Statistic (95% CI) | IDI, % (95% CI) | NRI (95% CI) | Average Predicted Risk, % | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
Lowest Decile | Highest Decile | ||||
Full-stay EHR model | |||||
Derivation cohort | 0.72 (0.70 to 0.73) | — | — | 4.1 | 36.5 |
Validation cohort | 0.69 (0.68 to 0.70)† | [Reference] | [Reference] | 4.1 | 36.5 |
First-day EHR model | 0.67 (0.66 to 0.68) | −1.2 (−1.4 to –1.0) | −0.020 (−0.038 to –0.002) | 5.8 | 31.9 |
LACE model‡ | 0.65 (0.64 to 0.66) | −2.6 (−2.9 to –2.3) | −0.046 (−0.067 to –0.024) | 6.1 | 27.5 |
HOSPITAL model□ | 0.64 (0.62 to 0.65) | −3.2 (−3.5 to –2.9) | −0.058 (−0.080 to –0.035) | 6.7 | 26.6 |
NOTE: Abbreviations; CI, confidence interval; EHR, electronic health record; IDI, Integrated Discrimination Improvement; NRI, Net Reclassification Index.
All measures were assessed using the validation cohort (N = 16,430), except for estimating the C-statistic for the derivation cohort.
P value <0.001 for all pairwise comparisons of C-statistic between full-stay model and first-day, LACE, and HOSPITAL models, respectively.
The LACE model includes Length of stay, Acute (nonelective) admission status, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and Emergency department visits in the past year.
The HOSPITAL model includes Hemoglobin at discharge, discharge from Oncology service, Sodium level at discharge, Procedure during index hospitalization, Index hospitalization Type (nonelective), number of Admissions in the past year, and Length of stay.