. 2017 Mar 13;13(3):e1005431. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005431

Table 1. Best-fit parameters and likelihood-based 99% confidence intervals.

Best-fit parameters and likelihood-based 99% confidence intervals for the fits of the two-, three-, and four-stage clonal expansion models (with parameterizations using only practically identifiable parameter combinations and given in Eqs (2), (9) and (11) respectively) to age-specific incidence of pancreatic cancer.

Model	Parameter combination	Value	Likelihood-based 99% CI
Two-stage
	$p_{2} = \frac{1}{2} (- (α - β - μ_{1}) - \sqrt{(α - β - μ_{1}) + 4 α μ_{1}})$	-1.29E-1	(-1.30E-1, -1.29E-1)
	$q_{2} = \frac{1}{2} (- (α - β - μ_{1}) + \sqrt{(α - β - μ_{1}) + 4 α μ_{1}})$	6.21E-6	(6.13E-6, 6.29E-6)
	r₂ = νX/α	1.50E-2	(1.49E-2, 1.52E-2)
Three-stage
	$p_{3} = \frac{1}{2} (- (α - β - μ_{2}) - \sqrt{(α - β - μ_{2}) + 4 α μ_{2}})$	-1.38E-1	(-1.39E-1, -1.37E-1)
	$q_{3} = \frac{1}{2} (- (α - β - μ_{2}) + \sqrt{(α - β - μ_{2}) + 4 α μ_{2}})$	1.57E-5	(1.53E-5, 1.60E-5)
	$r_{3} = \sqrt{ν X μ_{1} / α}$	2.35E-2	(2.33E-2, 2.38E-2)
Four-stage
	$p_{4} = \frac{1}{2} (- (α - β - μ_{3}) - \sqrt{(α - β - μ_{3}) + 4 α μ_{3}})$	-1.50E-1	(-1.52E-1, -1.48E-1)
	$q_{4} = \frac{1}{2} (- (α - β - μ_{3}) + \sqrt{(α - β - μ_{3}) + 4 α μ_{3}})$	4.59E-5	(4.40E-5, 4.78E-5)
	r₄ = (νXμ₁μ₂/α)^1/3	2.66E-2	(2.63E-2, 2.70E-2)