Table 2.
Predictive capacity (mortality 1 year from date of admission) of individual prognostic criteria and potential combinations of scores
| Prognostic criteria/trigger | n (%) | Positive predictive value (%) | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Child-Pugh C | 36 (49.3) | 77.8 | 77.8 | 78.4 |
| Unsuitable for transplant | 62 (84.9) | 54.8 | 94.4 | 24.3 |
| WHO Performance status 3 or 4 | 14 (19.2) | 78.6 | 31.4 | 91.9 |
| Continuing alcohol usage (in ArLD) | 44 (60.3) | 56.8 | 71.4 | 48.7 |
| >2 admissions within last 6 months | 7 (9.6) | 57.1 | 11.1 | 91.9 |
| Cumulative prognostic score ≥2 | 57 (78.1) | 57.9 | 91.7 | 35.1 |
| Cumulative prognostic score ≥3 | 32 (43.8) | 81.3 | 72.2 | 83.8 |
| Cumulative prognostic score ≥4 | 7 (9.6) | 85.7 | 16.7 | 97.3 |
| Child-Pugh C+continuing alcohol | 24 (32.9) | 87.5 | 58.3 | 91.9 |
| Child-Pugh C+any other prognostic criteria | 34 (46.6) | 82.4 | 77.8 | 83.8 |
ArLD, alcohol-related liver disease.