Table 1.

Model Inputs

Parameter	Stool-based testing	Flexible Sigmoidosocpy	Colonoscopy	Source
Relative risk reduction for colorectal cancer incidence	0%	18%	77%	7,20
Relative risk reduction for colorectal cancer-specific mortality	25%*	28%	65%	20,21,23-26
Serious complications, per 100,000	1†	34‡	277‡	11,19
Screening rate in at-risk population, among up-to-date population	10.4%	0.7%§	61.7%	8
Specificity	92.9%║	87.0%	N/A¶	2
Parameters independent of screening method
Life expectancy, age-specific				6
Probability of colorectal cancer diagnosis, age- and stage-specific				9
Relative survival rate, by stage and years post-diagnosis				9
Proportion of general population up-to-date with screening – 65.1%				8
Delay after first cancer screening, for screening benefits to commence – 5 years				22,27
Discount rate – 3%				Assumption
Individual risk aversion (Supplement 1)				Assumption

^*Average for guaiac and immunochemical tests among individuals attending ≥1 round of screening, following meta-analysis.²⁶

^†To proxy for anxiety, we assumed a minimal risk of complications.

^‡The rate of complications increased with age, based on previous literature.¹¹

^§Assumption.

^║Average of FIT, FIT-DNA, and HSgFOBT.

^¶Specificity was employed to transfer individuals with false positive results to future colonoscopy screening.