Table 3. Lower and upper risk thresholds for which the risk prediction models have a positive net benefit compared with the National Lung Screening Trial criteria for 6-y lung cancer incidence.
| Model | NLST computed tomography-arm | NLST chest radiography arm | PLCO chest radiography arm | PLCO control arm | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower risk threshold (WF*) | Upper risk threshold (WF*) | Lower risk threshold (WF*) | Upper risk threshold (WF*) | Lower risk threshold (WF*) | Upper risk threshold (WF*) | Lower risk threshold (WF*) | Upper risk threshold (WF*) | |
| Bach model | 0.5% (199.0) | 12.7% (6.9) | 0.9% (110.1) | 13.5% (6.4) | 0.3% (332.3) | 10.4% (8.6) | 0.2% (499.0) | 8.9% (10.2) |
| LLP model | 1.8% (54.6) | 8.0% (11.5) | 1.2% (82.3) | 7.3% (12.7) | 0.4% (249.0) | 6.5% (14.4) | 0.4% (249.0) | 5.8% (16.2) |
| Simplified LLP model | 1.9% (51.6) | 8.5% (10.8) | 1.9% (51.6) | 8.5% (10.8) | 0.4% (249.0) | 8.5% (10.8) | 0.3% (332.3) | 5.3% (17.9) |
| PLCOm2012 model | 0.9% (110.1) | 16.1% (5.2) | 0.1% (999.0) | 10.5% (8.5) | 0.2% (499.0) | 9.0% (10.1) | 0.1% (999.0) | 11.0% (8.1) |
| Simplified PLCOm2012 model | 0.7% (141.9) | 13.6% (6.4) | 0.7% (141.9) | 12.0% (7.3) | 0.3% (332.3) | 9.3% (9.8) | 0.2% (499.0) | 8.5% (10.8) |
| TSCE lung cancer incidence model | 2.0% (49.0) | 12.1% (7.3) | 1.1% (89.9) | 8.0% (11.5) | 0.3% (332.3) | 7.9% (11.7) | 0.2% (499.0) | 6.9% (13.5) |
| Knoke model | 3.5% (27.6) | 13.3% (6.5) | 2.8% (34.7) | 8.8% (10.4) | 3.0% (32.3) | 7.7% (12.0) | 2.9% (33.5) | 7.2% (12.9) |
| TSCE CPS lung cancer death model | 3.4% (28.4) | 7.1% (13.1) | 2.8% (34.7) | 6.2% (15.1) | 2.8% (34.7) | 6.2% (15.1) | 2.8% (34.7) | 6.0% (15.7) |
| TSCE NHS/HPFS lung cancer death model | 2.7% (36.0) | 16.7% (5.0) | 2.0% (49.0) | 9.9% (9.1) | 0.2% (499.0) | 7.8% (11.8) | 2.3% (42.5) | 6.6% (14.2) |
*Weighting factor corresponding to the risk threshold, i.e., the ratio of how much worse missing one case of lung cancer that could be detected through screening is valued compared to unnecessarily screening one person.
CPS, Cancer Prevention Study; HPFS, Health Professionals Follow-up Study; LC, lung cancer; LLP, Liverpool Lung Project; NHS, Nurses’ Health Study; NLST, National Lung Screening Trial; PLCO, Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial; TSCE, Two-Stage Clonal Expansion; WF, weighting factor.