Table 4. Posterior estimates for the effect of environmental, intervention, socio-economic factors.
| Variable | Parasitaemia prevalence (%) | Model 1† | Model 2†† |
|---|---|---|---|
| OR (95% BCI) | OR (95% BCI) | ||
| Land cover | |||
| Forest | 17.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Crops | 27.2 | 2.12 (1.25, 2.29)* | 1.35 (1.17, 1.42)* |
| Others | 10.0 | 0.56 (0.39, 0.73)* | 0.59 (0.44, 0.71)* |
| Land surface temperature (Day) | |||
| < = 31.4 | 11.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 31.4–33.8 | 19.7 | 1.98 (1.69, 2.52)* | 2.87 (2.42, 3.08)* |
| > = 33.8 | 26.6 | 3.19 (2.83, 3.85)* | 1.98 (1.68, 2.01)* |
| Land surface temperature (Night) | - | 1.75 (1.64, 1.82)* | 1.25 (1.17, 1.26)* |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Rural | 21.6 | 6.25 (5.62, 8.60)* | 2.06 (1.96, 2.19)* |
| Wealth Index | |||
| Poorest | 27.7 | 1.0 | |
| Poorer | 21.1 | 0.86 (0.72, 1.04) | |
| Middle | 20.8 | 0.77 (0.85, 1.15) | |
| Richer | 11.9 | 0.52 (0.42, 0.61)* | |
| Richest | 3.3 | 0.19 (0.14, 0.27)* | |
| ITN ownership | |||
| Proportion of population with access to an ITN in their households | 0.78 (0.67, 0.89)* | ||
| ITN use | |||
| Proportion of ITNs used the previous night | 1.68 (1.52, 1.77)* | ||
| Indoor Residual Spraying | |||
| Not sprayed | 21.0 | 1.0 | |
| Sprayed | 5.0 | 0.22 (0.14, 0.42)* | |
| Case management | |||
| Proportion of fevers treated with ACTs | 1.29 (1.00, 1.38) | ||
| Age (months) | |||
| < = 12 | 9.6 | 1.0 | |
| 13–24 | 16.1 | 2.16 (1.85, 2.41)* | |
| 25–36 | 22.5 | 3.67 (3.08, 4.16)* | |
| 37–48 | 23.1 | 3.54 (2.83, 3.83)* | |
| 49–59 | 26.0 | 4.77 (4.47, 5.97)* | |
| Mother’s education | |||
| None | 26.4 | 1.0 | |
| Primary | 17.8 | 0.85 (0.74, 0.89)* | |
| Post primary | 8.2 | 0.57 (0.57, 0.67)* | |
| Variances | |||
| Gaussian process | 0.45 (0.40, 0.48) | 0.77 (0.62, 0.80) | |
| Range (km) | 52.2 (33.9, 69.5) | 47.7 (40.7, 56.4) |
†Only climatic factors
††Intervention + climatic + SES + demographic
*Statistically important