Table 3. Epidemiological parameters estimated.
Item | Distribution | Mean (median) | 90%CI | N |
---|---|---|---|---|
Dog rabies | ||||
Period between disease onset and death in days | Gamma (shape = 4.56, rate = 1.57) | 2.9 (2.7) | 1.1–5.5 | 181 |
Period between disease onset and date when killed in days | Gamma (2.05, 0.92) | 2.3 (1.9) | 0.4–5.2 | 97 |
Serial interval (Ts) in days | Gamma (1.41, 0.03) | 45.0 (34.7) | 4.7–118.8 | 49 |
Growth rate (λ) (1914) | 1.03 | 1.018–1.037 | 15 weeks | |
Growth rate (λ) (1921–22) | 1.01 | 1.010–1.011 | 65 weeks | |
R0 (1914) | 2.42 (2.42) | 1.94–2.91 | 5000 iterations | |
R0 (1921–22) | 1.50 (1.50) | 1.48–1.52 | 5000 iterations | |
Human rabies | ||||
Incubation period | Gamma (0.84, 0.01) | 76.4 (49.1) | 2.5–242.9 | 13 |
Infectious period | Gamma (4.31,1.62) | 2.7 (2.5) | 1.0–5.1 | 9 |