Table 2.

Hierarchical Poisson model estimates of incidence rates of esophageal adenocarcinoma, including lag periods, of white males, SEER, 1973–2012

	Model
	5-Year Time Lag*			10-Year Time Lag†			15-Year Time Lag‡
Fixed effects	Coefficient	SE	P	Coefficient	SE	P	Coefficient	SE	P
Model for mean
Intercept	−12.254	0.364	<0.001	−11.727	0.395	<0.001	−11.072	0.353	<0.001
Age (linear, centered)	0.126	0.004	<0.001	0.126	0.003	<0.001	0.125	0.003	<0.001
Age (quadratic)	−0.002	<0.001	<0.001	−0.002	<0.001	<0.001	−0.002	<0.001	<0.001
Period obesity (%)	5.588	1.418	<0.001	4.929	1.741	0.005	3.812	1.655	0.021
Cohort obesity (%)	4.268	1.400	0.002	3.523	1.297	0.007	2.481	1.220	0.042
Variance Components	Variance	SE	P	Variance	SE	P	Variance	SE	P
Period
Intercept	0.075	0.044	0.046	0.072	0.047	0.062	0.035	0.026	0.086
Cohort
Intercept	0.029	0.016	0.032	0.021	0.012	0.038	0.016	0.010	0.052

SE, standard error.

*Limited to incidence rates from SEER, 1975–2012.

^†Limited to incidence rates from SEER, 1980–2012.

^‡Limited to incidence rates from SEER, 1985–2012.