Table 1.

Model parameters to be estimated from epidemiological data, their prior ranges and posterior estimates

Parameter	Interpretation	Stratification	Prior domain	Posterior estimate (95% CrIa)	Source
γ	Recovery rate (inverse infectious duration)	None	1/γ ∈ [1/7; 2.5/7]	2.85 [2.81; 2.91]	[19, 49]
R e	Baseline transmission rate	none	[0; 1]	0.13 [0.10; 0.15]	Assumption
λ o	External force of infection	None	[0 ;  ∞ )	1.49 x 10-8 [0.96 x 10-8; 2.15 x 10-8]	Assumption
ρ	Spatial clustering parameter	None	[0; 1]	0.76 [0.75; 0.78]	[40]
m	Contact matrix mixing parameter	None	[1 ;  ∞ )	1.04 [1.01; 1.09]	[48]
δ	Amplitude of transmission rate	None	[0 ;  ∞ )	2.38 [2.23; 2.53]	Assumption
$p_a^{\left(c\right)}$	Age specific medical consultation probability	None	$p_{<5}^{\left(c\right)}\in \left[0.28;0.46\right]$ $p_{\ge 5}^{\left(c\right)}\in \left[0.19;0.38\right]$	0.453 [0.446; 0.457] 0.373 [0.365; 0.377]	[55]
t s	Seasonal shift in peak transmission	By season	[−0.125; 0.125]	See Additional file 1	Assumption
t z	Subtype-specific shift in peak transmission	By subtype	[−0.5; 0.5]	See Additional file 1	Assumption
σ a	Age specific susceptibility	By subtype	[0; 1]	See Fig. 2	[52]
φ	Season specific susceptible fraction	By season and subtype	[0; 1]	See Fig. 2	[52]

^a credibility interval