Table 3.

Relative reduction in probability of premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2025

	WHO risk factor targets		Ideal risk reduction		Proportion of ideal risk addressed by meeting WHO target
	Men	Women	Men	Women	Men	Women
Business-as-usual	22%	25%
Additional reduction if achieving risk factor targets or ideal risk scenario
Obesity	2.3% (1.6% to 2.9%)	1.1% (0.3% to 1.9%)	7.9% (5.9% to 9.8%)	4.8% (2.6% to 7.1%)	29%	24%
Tobacco use	0.6% (0.6% to 0.7%)	0.6% (0.6% to 0.7%)	12.1% (10.1% to 14.0%)	9.7% (8.2% to 11.1%)	5%	7%
Diabetes	1.4% (1.2% to 1.7%)	0.7% (0.6% to 0.8%)	2.7% (2.2% to 3.2%)	1.4% (1.2% to 1.7%)	53%	51%
Raised blood pressure	0.4% (0.4% to 0.4%)	0.2% (0.2% to 0.2%)	1.6% (1.6% to 1.7%)	0.7% (0.7% to 0.8%)	25%	25%
Salt intake	0.8% (0.8% to 0.9%)	0.3% (0.3% to 0.3%)	2.1% (2.0% to 2.2%)	0.7% (0.7% to 0.8%)	39%	40%
Harmful alcohol use*	0.6% (0.4% to 0.8%)	0.3% (0.22% to 0.5%)	0.9% (−4.6% to 4.0%)	3.2% (−1.08% to 6.9%)	62%	11%
Physical inactivity	0.1% (0.08% to 0.1%)	0.1% (0.0% to 0.1%)	1.1% (0.81% to 1.4%)	0.6% (0.4% to 0.7%)	10%	10%
Combined scenario	6.5% (5.4% to 7.5%)	3.2% (2.2% to 4.1%)	26.2% (21.9% to 29.7%)	18.4% (14.3% to 22.2%)	25%	17%

Values are mean and 95% uncertainty intervals.

*Low-level consumption of alcohol is associated with a decreased risk of some diseases (eg, coronary heart disease, hypertensive heart disease and diabetes), which partly counter the modelled health benefits of abstaining from alcohol.