Table 1.

Bias, coverage of 95% confidence intervals and root mean square error (RMSE), reported for the distributed lag linear (DLM) and non-linear (DLNM) model and for moving average (MA) models with different lag intervals (0-3, 0-7, and 0-20), in four alternative simulated scenarios. An algebraic definition of bias, coverage and RMSE is provided in eAppendix 2 (Supplemental Digital Content).

Model	Linear short-lag scenario			Linear long-lag scenario
	Bias (x100)	coverage	RMSE (x100)	Bias (x100)	coverage	RMSE (x100)
DLM	0.03	0.95	2.81	0.05	0.95	2.77
MA0-3	0.22	0.94	0.99	4.92	0.00	5.00
MA0-7	0.49	0.94	1.44	1.87	0.70	2.28
MA0-20	1.16	0.94	3.02	0.10	0.95	2.75
	Non-linear short-lag scenario			Non-linear long-lag scenario
	Bias (x100)	coverage	RMSE (x100)	Bias (x100)	coverage	RMSE (x100)
DLNM	0.43	0.94	3.42	0.62	0.94	3.38
MA0-3	0.76	0.89	1.47	7.33	0.27	7.54
MA0-7	1.68	0.84	2.38	3.34	0.50	3.73
MA0-20	3.06	0.84	4.55	1.95	0.89	3.89