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. 2016 Oct 8;388(10053):1459–1544. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31012-1

Figure 1.

Figure 1

Estimation of all-cause mortality by age and sex and HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, and mortality for GBD 2015

Data and analyses are indicated by shape and the flow chart is colour coded by major estimation component. The process depicted is performed twice to bring in updated under-5 population estimates and crude death rates due to HIV/AIDS. The inputs that are updated in the second run of the process are shown by patterned boxes in this flow chart. Because of the very large and changing effects of HIV/AIDS on all-cause mortality in several countries with large HIV epidemics and limited data on all-cause mortality, the estimation of HIV/AIDS and all-cause mortality are closely linked and are presented jointly here. GBD=Global Burden of Disease. 5q0=probability of death from birth to age 5 years. 45q15=probability of death from age 15 to 60 years. ART=antiretroviral therapy. CBH=complete birth histories. CDR=crude death rate. COD=causes of death. DSP=disease surveillance points. ED=educational attainment in years per capita above age 15 years and mother's educational attainment in years per capita for children younger than 5 years. EPP=Estimation and Projection Package. HIV CDR=crude death rate due to HIV/AIDS. LDI=lagged distributed income per capita. SBH=summary birth history. SRS=Sample Registration System. VR=vital registration.