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. 2016 Oct 8;388(10053):1459–1544. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31012-1

Figure 8.

Figure 8

Distribution of out-of-sample model performance for CODEm models used for GBD 2015

Model performance was assessed by use of the root mean square error of the ensemble model predictions of the log of the age-specific death rates for a cause assessed with 15% of the data held out from the statistical model building. The figure shows the distribution of root mean square error across the set all models for all causes. Model performance varies substantially across causes. GBD=Global Burden of Disease. CODEm=cause of death ensemble modelling.