Table 5. Net coefficient estimates, derived from logistic regression models predicting inter-province migration with country-climate interaction terms, climate measures for years 1-5 prior to census.
Country | Temperature, standardized | Rainfall, standardized | Count, monthly temperature > 2 SD | Count, monthly temperature < (-)2SD | Count, monthly rainfall > 2 SD | Count, monthly rainfall < 1 mm | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Argentina | 0.108 | -0.131 | 0.303 | ** | 0.057 | 0.004 | 0.060 | |||||
Bolivia | -0.166 | ** | 0.049 | 0.117 | 0.061 | + | -0.004 | -0.141 | + | |||
Brazil | 0.115 | * | 0.016 | 0.009 | 0.052 | 0.015 | 0.018 | |||||
Chile | 0.311 | + | -0.017 | 0.032 | 0.136 | + | 0.038 | + | 0.068 | ** | ||
Colombia | 0.005 | -0.269 | ** | 0.081 | 0.146 | * | -0.056 | 0.521 | ** | |||
Ecuador | -0.098 | 0.058 | 0.022 | 0.050 | + | -0.017 | -0.138 | |||||
Paraguay | 0.044 | 0.086 | -0.032 | -0.050 | 0.004 | -0.138 | ||||||
Uruguay | 0.894 | ** | 0.220 | 0.646 | ** | 0.144 | -0.184 | -0.138 |
p<0.10,
p<0.05,
p<0.01
N=21,344,711; joint test of climate * country interactions X2=287.50**
Models include control variables and province and decade fixed effects
Joint tests of interaction terms are statistically significant at p<0.01 for both models