Figure 1. Evolution of Southern African summer rainfall.

(a–d) Multi-model seasonal mean rainfall differences (mm day⁻¹) against historical runs (period NDJF 1970–1999) for RCP8.5: 2010–2039 (a), 2040–2069 (b), 2070–2099 (c), and RCP8.5 minus RCP2.6 for period 2070–2099 (d). Only significant differences at the 95% level are represented. Lower panels show the number of models (out of 15) that are in agreement (changes of the same sign, with the same statistical significance level) with the above panels. (e–h) As (a–d) but for the number of rainy days (≥1 mm day⁻¹). (i–l) As (a–d) but for the average intensity of rainy days (mm day⁻¹).