Figure 4. Long-term and short-term changes in moisture fluxes (g kg⁻¹ m s⁻¹) and moisture convergence (g kg⁻¹ s⁻¹) in austral summer and during extreme events.

(a) Long-term evolutions (RCP8.5 minus HIST) of the NDJF seasonal mean moisture fluxes (g kg⁻¹ m s⁻¹) at 850 hPa, for the CanESM climate model: 2010–2039 (left-hand column), 2040–2069 (central column) and 2070–2099 (right-hand column). Vectors represent 95% significant flux differences and colors represent 95% significant differences in moisture convergence, see color bar and legend. (b) As Figure (a) but only during the p99 events in the Malawi region (difference between the moisture flux and convergence associated with future p99 events taken from an RCP8.5 simulation minus present-day p99 events obtained from a historical simulation). (c) Moisture flux and convergence anomalies during p99 events with respect to their corresponding 30-yr climatology for the same model, and for simulations HIST (period 1970–99) and RCP8.5 (periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099). (d) Seasonal mean climatology, HIST simulation, period 1970–1999.