Fig. 1.

Infections averted between 2015 and 2035, compared with maintaining status quo diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression, by the UNAIDS 95–95–95 target (Top); rollout of vaccination in 2020 while maintaining status quo levels of diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression (Middle); and the UNAIDS 95–95–95 target combined with 2020 vaccination rollout (Bottom). Predictions are medians over 1,000 model simulations in which parameter values were sampled from data-driven distributions. See SI Appendix, Figs. S4–S140 for projections and uncertainty estimation globally, by region, and by country.