TABLE 3.

Discrimination and calibration for predicting all-cause mortality in the PROMISE study

Indices	1-year mortality#		2-year mortality¶
	C-statistic (95% CI)	Calibration	C-statistic (95% CI)	Calibration
BODE index+	0.76 (0.65–0.87)	0.9	0.69 (0.61–0.78)	0.2
Updated BODE index+	0.78 (0.67–0.89)	0.7	0.70 (0.61–0.78)	0.6
ADO index§	0.72 (0.62–0.82)	0.3	0.72 (0.64–0.79)	0.8
DOSE index§	0.64 (0.54–0.73)	0.9	0.63 (0.55–0.70)	0.8
Simplified B-AE-D index	0.78 (0.68–0.87)	0.4	0.74 (0.67–0.81)	0.5
Simplified B-AE-D-C index	0.80 (0.71–0.90)	0.7	0.77 (0.70–0.85)	0.9
Optimised B-AE-D index	0.78 (0.69–0.88)	0.9	0.75 (0.68–0.82)	0.9
Optimised B-AE-D-C index	0.81 (0.71–0.91)	0.2	0.78 (0.70–0.85)	0.2

PROMISE: Predicting Outcome using Systemic Markers in Severe Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease; BODE: body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, exercise capacity; ADO: age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction; DOSE: dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation; B: body mass index; AE: severe acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease frequency; D: modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea severity; C: copeptin. ^#: n=530; ^¶: n=460; ⁺: missing values in lung function test or 6-min walking distance (1 year: n=488, 2 years: n=416); ^§: missing values in lung function test (1 year: n=525, 2 years: n=444).