TABLE 4.

Discrimination and calibration for predicting all-cause mortality in the 5-year follow-up subpopulation of the PROMISE study

Indices	3-year mortality		5-year mortality#
	C-statistic (95% CI)	Calibration	C-statistic (95% CI)	Calibration
BODE index¶	0.59 (0.50–0.67)	0.6	0.60 (0.54–0.67)	0.6
Updated BODE index¶	0.60 (0.52–0.69)	0.9	0.62 (0.55–0.68)	0.4
ADO index+	0.67 (0.59–0.75)	0.11	0.68 (0.61–0.74)	0.2
DOSE index+	0.58 (0.50–0.65)	0.7	0.58 (0.52–0.64)	0.2
Simplified B-AE-D index	0.65 (0.57–0.72)	0.2	0.62 (0.57–0.67)	0.3
Simplified B-AE-D-C index	0.71 (0.64–0.79)	0.7	0.68 (0.62–0.74)	0.4
Optimised B-AE-D index	0.65 (0.57–0.72)	0.3	0.62 (0.56–0.68)	0.2
Optimised B-AE-D-C index	0.71 (0.63–0.78)	0.10	0.67 (0.61–0.73)	0.07

PROMISE: Predicting Outcome using Systemic Markers in Severe Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease; BODE: body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, exercise capacity; ADO: age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction; DOSE: dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation; B: body mass index; AE: severe acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease frequency; D: modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea severity; C: copeptin. ^#: n=231; ^¶: 211 missing values in lung function test or 6-min walking distance; ⁺: 229 missing values in lung function test.