Table 1. Summary of model inputs.
* Average cost for RFA procedure includes; 3-4 hospitalization days, diagnostic examinations e.g. ultrasound and/or CT and MR and catheters. § Anticoagulation treatment (warfarin) consists of; monitoring at specialist dept. (58 %), average cost per unit, 200SEK (22USD); number of visits per annum, 16.25; monitoring at primary care unit average cost per unit 545SEK (60USD) (42 % average cost 509SEK (56USD) of which 10 % at home, average cost 861SEK (94USD), number of visits, 13.75; travel, 42SEK (5USD); loss of production, 26SEK (3USD) and medication 576SEK (63USD).
| Variable | Value | Distribution |
|---|---|---|
| Probability of AF free at 12 months | ||
| RFA | 0.780 | |
| AAD | 0.090 | |
| Rate of AF in AAD | 2.4423 | Gamma(24, 0.10) |
| Risk ratio RFA vs AAD | 0.1017 | Log normal |
| Stroke risk, AF (%) | 1.5 | Gamma(1, 0.02) |
| Stroke risk, free from AF (%) | 1.5 | Gamma(1, 0.02) |
| Complication with RFA | 0.030 | Beta(14, 448) |
| Cost items | Mean costs; SEK (USD) | |
| RFA procedure, single event* | 90 000 (9 860) | Gamma(36, 2500) |
| Complication cost | 20 000 (2 190) | Gamma(2, 11250) |
| AAD treatment, annual | 15 000 (1 640) | Gamma(9, 1667) |
| Anticoagulation treatment, annual§ | 7 000 (770) | Gamma(8, 875) |
| Cost of stroke (yr 1) | 175 000 (19 180) | Gamma(77, 2286) |
| Cost of stroke (>yr 1, per annum)) | 40 000 (4 380) | Gamma(16, 2500) |
| QALY-weights for males in normal population Age | QALY-weights | |
| >69 | 0.830 | Beta(812, 166) |
| 70-79 | 0.800 | Beta(394, 99) |
| 80< | 0.740 | Beta(103, 36) |
| Decrement for AF | 0.100 | Gamma(11, 0.01) |
| Decrement for stroke | 0.250 | Gamma(69, 0.00) |
| Annual discount rate Costs | 0.03 | |
| Effects | 0.03 |