Table 1. Model Parameters and Sources.

Parameters	Source
Population size of demographic cohorts	NHANES 2003-2012
Weight changes associated with caloric intake (Appendix Text 1)	NIH model of body mass change a
Risk of MI or stroke by demographic group (Appendix Text 2)	Model-based estimates from meta-analysis data b
Risk of type II diabetes (Appendix Table 5)	CDC
Risk of lung cancer (Appendix Table 6)	SEER
Baseline MI history prevalence (Appendix Table 7)	NHANES 2003-2012
Baseline stroke history prevalence (Appendix Table 8)	NHANES 2003-2012
Baseline hypertension treatment prevalence (Appendix Table 9)	NHANES 2003-2012
Baseline systolic blood pressure (Appendix Table 10)	NHANES 2003-2012
Baseline total cholesterol (Appendix Table 11)	NHANES 2003-2012
Baseline HDL cholesterol (Appendix Table 12)	NHANES 2003-2012
Baseline weight and height (Appendix Tables 13 and 14)	NHANES 2003-2012
MI or stroke mortality rate (Appendix Text 3)	Model calibration to national data c
Hazard ratio of Type II diabetes on all-cause mortality (Appendix Table 2)	Meta-analysis data d
All-cause mortality rate	CDC
Food cost (Appendix Table 3A)	QFHPD
Food consumption elasticity (Appendix Table 3B)	HIP findings e

^aWeight changes associated with caloric intake -NIH model of body mass.^27,29

^bRisk of MI or stroke by demographic group - Model-based estimates from meta-analysis data. ^25,58,59

^cMI or stroke mortality rate - Model calibration to national data.^25,58,59

^dHazard ratio of type II diabetes on all-cause mortality - Meta-analysis data.³⁵

^eFood consumption elasticity - HIP findings.⁶

NHANES, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey; MI, myocardial infarction; CDC, Center for Disease Control and Prevention; SEER, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results; HDL, High-density lipoprotein; QFHPD, Quarterly Food-at-home Price Database; HIP, Healthy Incentive Pilot