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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2017 Apr 24.
Published in final edited form as: Stat Anal Data Min. 2016 Feb 23;9(6):397–410. doi: 10.1002/sam.11302

Table 1.

Percentiles of the Predictive Distributions of the Conditional Probabilistic Forecasts of the Number of Lost Teaching Assistant Positions given Different Numbers of Graduate Student Offers with Funding. Negative values indicate the number of students that would not be funded from current funding sources.

#Offers 10% 33% 50% 67% 90% Description
12 0 2 3 5 7 Very conservative
17 −3 0 1 2 5 Conservative
20 −4 −2 0 1 4 Break-even
23 −6 −3 −2 0 3 Bold
30 −9 −6 −5 −3 0 Very bold