Table 3.

Comparison of fasting triglycerides, abdominal obesity and hypertriglyceridaemic waist as predictors of incident diabetes and change in insulin resistance.

Outcome	Predictor	β (SE)	Relative risk	p-value
Incident diabetesa	Triglycerides (mmol/l)
	<1.36	Reference	Reference	-
	1.36–2.10	0.786 (0.533)	2.2	0.141
	>2.10	1.308 (0.529)	3.7	0.013
	Abdominal obesity
	No	Reference	Reference	-
	Yes	0.821 (0.490)	2.3	0.094
	Hypertriglyceridaemic waist
	No	Reference	Reference	-
	Yes	0.825 (0.362)	2.3	0.022
Change in insulin resistanceb	Triglycerides (mmol/l)		n/a	0.005
	<1.36	Reference		0.012
	1.36–2.10	2.243 (0.801) 2.138 (0.854)
	>2.10
	Abdominal obesity		n/a	0.101
	No	Reference
	Yes	1.395 (0.850)
	Hypertriglyceridaemic waist		n/a	0.151
	No	Reference
	Yes	1.047 (0.729)

^a Generalised linear model with Poisson distribution, adjusted for age at baseline and sex.

^b General linear model, adjusted for HOMA-IR at baseline, age at baseline and sex.