Table 2.

Estimated transition probabilities

	Prior state	Current state
		Low	Moderate	Severe
3-State model
Full population	Low	0.82	0.15	0.03
	Moderate	0.47	0.35	0.18
	Severe	0.13	0.39	0.48
Regular-visit sub-cohort	Low	0.84	0.13	0.03
	Moderate	0.52	0.33	0.15
	Severe	0.16	0.41	0.43
3-State model assuming a 6-month interval
Full population	Low	0.81	0.15	0.05
	Moderate	0.46	0.37	0.17
	Severe	0.26	0.33	0.41
Regular-visit sub-cohort	Low	0.84	0.13	0.03
	Moderate	0.48	0.38	0.14
	Severe	0.28	0.34	0.38