Figure 1:

Base-case incidence. Model-predicted incident (first) lung cancers per 1000 participants at risk are shown as a function of years since simulated randomization, in screening arm versus control arm. Baseline screening (year 0) yields a high number of NSCLCs; after five screening examinations, the incidence rate in the screening arm decreases below that of the control arm. Table 1 provides further details about baseline screening.