Figure 2:

Base-case stage shift. Model-predicted lung cancer cases (per 1000 participants) detected in the first 5 years after simulated randomization, stratified according to trial arm. Compared with nonscreening cohort, screening yields a higher number of NSCLCs, a greater proportion of which are stage I. Also predicted is a stage shift from stage IV NSCLC to earlier stages. No comparable increase in cases of SCLCs was predicted, and the distribution of limited stage (LS) versus extensive stage (ES) was not substantially changed with screening.