Table 4.

Estimated annual transition rates (95% confidence interval) of the CD4⁺ cell-based Markov model of HIV natural history by region for 1444 women aged 15–24 years.

	Europe/North America	Africa	SE/E Asia
Progression rates
λ12	0.190 (0.131–0.276)	0.184 (0.121–0.280)	0.275 (0.189–0.400)
λ23	0.315 (0.164–0.606)	0.305 (0.164–0.567)	0.457 (0.239–0.876)
λ34	0.322 (0.136–0.763)	0.311 (0.118–0.820)	0.466 (0.195–1.114)
λ45	0.488 (0.175–1.362)	0.471 (0.154–1.438)	0.707 (0.248–2.014)
λ56	0.548 (0.217–1.385)	0.530 (0.176–1.596)	0.794 (0.304–2.075)
λ67	0.830 (0.162–4.257)	0.802 (0.155–4.152)	1.202 (0.233–6.21)
Mortality rates
λ19	0.001 (0–0.004)	0.003 (0.001–0.013)	0.002 (0.001–0.008)
λ29	0.004 (0.001–0.014)	0.009 (0.002–0.039)	0.007 (0.002–0.027)
λ39	0.003 (0.001–0.006)	0.008 (0.003–0.020)	0.005 (0.002–0.011)
λ49	0.005 (0.001–0.024)	0.013 (0.002–0.069)	0.009 (0.002–0.046)
λ59	0.008 (0.003–0.024)	0.022 (0.006–0.075)	0.016 (0.005–0.051)
λ69	0.014 (0.002–0.113)	0.039 (0.004–0.364)	0.027 (0.003–0.243)
λ79	0.328 (0.221–0.486)	0.878 (0.424–1.817)	0.615 (0.366–1.033)

Refer to Fig. 1 for schematic representation of transition rates. SE/E Asia, Southeast/East Asia.