Table 2.
Time period and the corresponding annual mean temperature (T Europe) and annual total precipitation (P Europe) of Europe for which +1.5, +2, +3 and +3.5 °C global warming compared to pre-industrial times was reached in ECHAM5 GCM global climate for SRES A1B scenario provided by the ENSEMBLE project
| SWLa (°C) | T Europe (°C) | P Europe (mm year−1) | Central year | Period | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reference | +0.68b | 8.6 | 818 | 1995 | 1981–2010 |
| SWL1.5 | +1.5 | 9.6 | 818 | 2035 | 2021–2050 |
| SWL2 | +2 | 10.2 | 815 | 2048 | 2034–2063 |
| SWL3 | +3 | 11.2 | 818 | 2072 | 2058–2087 |
| SWL3.5 | +3.5 | 11.7 | 821 | 2085 | 2071–2100 |
a SWL specific warming level relative to pre-industrial (1881–1910) climate. A SWL is defined as the 30-years period when the average global mean temperature reaches a given warming level compared to the pre-industrial period 1881–1910, following Vautard et al. [53]. Due to the fast increase in the projected global mean temperature, there are overlaps across SWL time periods
bThe SWL in ‘Reference’ period (1981–2010) is the average SWL based on the three global observational datasets: NASA GISS (+0.70 °C; http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), HadCRUT4 (+0.66 °C; http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/) and NOAA NCDC (+0.68 °C; http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.html#anomalies). Data were Accessed in September, 2016