Table 3.
Predictors of Severe Denguea: Univariable and Multivariable Logistic Regression Analysis
| Variables | Severe Denguea | Unadjusted OR (95% CI); P Value | Adjusted OR (95% CI); P Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes (171) n (%) | No (198) n (%) | |||
| Age ≥24 yearsb | 97 (56.7) | 117 (59.1) | 0.9 (0.6–1.4); .65 | — |
| Duration of illness at presentation ≥5 days | 104 (60.8) | 93 (47) | 1.8 (1.2–2.6); .008 | 1.1 (1.0–1.2); .03 |
| Conjunctival congestion | 13 (7.6) | 5 (2.5) | 3.2 (1.1–9.1); .031 | — |
| Dyspnea at rest | 25 (14.6) | 4 (2) | 8.3 (2.8–24.4); <.001 | 5.1 (1.6–15.7); .005 |
| Abdominal pain | 75 (43.9) | 64 (32.3) | 1.6 (1.1–2.5); .023 | 1.5 (0.9–2.3); .09 |
| Vomiting | 98 (57.3) | 93 (47) | 1.5 (1.0–2.3); .048 | — |
| Lowest platelet count ≤20000/mm3 | 77 (46.7) | 71 (37.4) | 1.5 (1.0–2.2); .077 | — |
| Leucocytosis at presentation | 25 (15.2) | 9 (4.6) | 3.7 (1.7–8.2); .001 | 2.2 (0.9–5.1); .078 |
| Creatinine at presentation >1mg/dL | 25 (17) | 12 (6.7) | 2.8 (1.4–5.9); .005 | — |
| Bilirubin at presentation >1 mg/dL | 36 (25.7) | 16 (9.7) | 3.2 (1.7–6.1); <.001 | — |
| Peak AST >250U/L | 41 (26.3) | 29 (16.5) | 1.8 (1.1–3.1); .03 | — |
| Peak ALT >250U/L | 30 (19.4) | 16 (9.1) | 2.4 (1.2–4.6); .008 | — |
| Sonographic evidence of gall bladder wall edema | 112 (73.2) | 98 (58) | 2.0 (1.2–3.2); .004 | — |
Abbreviations: ALT, alanine transaminase; ARDS, acute respiratory distress syndrome; AST, aspartate transaminase; CI, confidence interval; DIC, disseminated intravascular coagulation; DHF, dengue hemorrhagic fever; DSS, dengue shock syndrome; OR, odds ratio.
aSevere dengue includes DHF and DSS.
bIn accordance with the United Nations definition for youth: 15–24 years [14].
(Note: Variables such as presence of shock, ARDS, encephalitis, myocarditis, DIC, metabolic acidosis, etc, which are, by definition, severe dengue have been excluded from this list of “predictors”.)