Table 2.
Forecast errors for the various SARIMA models
| Model | MAE | MSE | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | |||
| (0,1,0,12) | 22.96 | 758.39 | 4.23% |
| (0,1,1,12) | 24.88 | 870.29 | 4.63% |
| (1,1,0,12) | 25.94 | 942.60 | 4.79% |
| (1,1,1,12) | 24.54 | 862.56 | 4.56% |
| (0,1,2,12) | 24.33 | 849.05 | 4.52% |
| (2,1,0,12) | 23.79 | 794.36 | 4.41% |
| (2,1,1,12) | 26.31 | 866.99 | 4.81% |
| (1,1,2,12) | 26.09 | 909.21 | 4.81% |
| Hypoglycaemia | |||
| (0,1,0,12) | 38.12 | 2026.34 | 11.58% |
| (0,1,1,12) | 25.50 | 941.22 | 7.57% |
| (1,1,0,12) | 26.85 | 1055.83 | 8.04% |
| (1,1,1,12) | 26.63 | 951.10 | 7.75% |
| (0,1,2,12) | 27.34 | 994.96 | 7.90% |
| (2,1,0,12) | 25.17 | 906.32 | 7.35% |
| (2,1,1,12) | 27.84 | 1037.25 | 7.90% |
| (1,1,2,12) | 27.73 | 1063.02 | 8.06% |
| Hyperglycaemia | |||
| (0,1,0,12) | 31.26 | 1412.35 | 14.74% |
| (0,1,1,12) | 12.94 | 254.31 | 6.26% |
| (1,1,0,12) | 15.49 | 321.36 | 7.43% |
| (1,1,1,12) | 13.22 | 269.20 | 6.40% |
| (0,1,2,12) | 13.38 | 281.07 | 6.49% |
| (2,1,0,12) | 15.35 | 337.68 | 7.41% |
| (2,1,1,12) | 15.24 | 348.73 | 7.41% |
| (1,1,2,12) | 13.78 | 300.21 | 6.67% |
| Female | |||
| (0,1,0,12) | 26.21 | 918.92 | 10.81% |
| (0,1,1,12) | 20.68 | 536.97 | 8.64% |
| (1,1,0,12) | 22.40 | 632.35 | 9.31% |
| (1,1,1,12) | 21.45 | 582.90 | 9.04% |
| (0,1,2,12) | 20.76 | 547.93 | 8.75% |
| (2,1,0,12) | 14.78 | 360.32 | 6.12% |
| (2,1,1,12) | 17.93 | 414.51 | 7.47% |
| (1,1,2,12) | 19.72 | 482.18 | 8.25% |
| Male | |||
| (0,1,0,12) | 24.97 | 872.20 | 7.97% |
| (0,1,1,12) | 20.12 | 590.74 | 6.38% |
| (1,1,0,12) | 22.34 | 746.52 | 7.03% |
| (1,1,1,12) | 18.85 | 618.37 | 5.99% |
| (0,1,2,12) | 18.97 | 634.50 | 6.03% |
| (2,1,0,12) | 18.78 | 437.23 | 6.11% |
| (2,1,1,12) | 20.70 | 605.84 | 6.56% |
| (1,1,2,12) | 20.54 | 706.99 | 6.51% |
MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MSE (Mean Square Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error)
Bold text indicates chosen model