Figure 3. Seedling's adaptive survival rate as a function of time for three strengths of selection (V_s) in the DEEMs.

The seedling-adaptive survival rate is calculated from equation (2) and does not take into account competition with adults. V_s of a trait is measured as a proportion of the variance V_SENM of its corresponding environmental variable in the initial niche as predicted by the SENMs (see Supplementary Table 1). Lines and coloured areas: mean and s.d. over all species, grids, climate scenarios and mutation rates investigated. Solid line: V_s=V_SENM; dashed line: V_s=0.5 × V_SENM; dotted line: V_s=0.33 × V_SENM. The strength of stabilizing selection decreases with V_s (equation (2)).