Table 1.

Empirical SPEI-fire models (Eq. 1) for each eco-region (labelled according to Fig. S1) and the correlation for the reconstruction model (RhoIN: in-sample) and for the leave-one-out cross validation model (RhoOUT: out-of-sample).

Region	Model	RhoIN	RhoOUT
ES01	Y = −0.52 · SPEI 3(0, 8) + 0.53 · SPEI 12(3, 11)	0.77	0.71
ES02	Y = −0.70 · SPEI 3(0, 8) + 0.43 · SPEI 12(2, 8)	0.86	0.84
ES03	Y = −0.62 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.62	0.53
ES04	Y = −0.74 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.74	0.69
ES05	Y = −0.57 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.57	0.45
ES07	Y = −0.72 · SPEI 3(0, 7)	0.72	0.68
ES08	Y = −0.61 · SPEI 3(0, 7)	0.61	0.55
ES10	Y = −0.44 · SPEI 6(0, 9)	0.44	0.40
ES11	Y = −0.70 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.70	0.67
ES13	Y = −0.45 · SPEI 3(0, 7)	0.45	0.37
ES14	Y = −0.69 · SPEI 3(0, 7)	0.69	0.64
ES15	Y = −0.53 · SPEI 3(0, 7)	0.53	0.47
ES17	Y = −0.63 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.63	0.59
FR01	Y = −0.61 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.61	0.54
FR03	Y = −0.64 · SPEI 6(0, 8)	0.64	0.58
FR04	Y = −0.63 · SPEI 3(0, 7)	0.63	0.60
GR01	Y = −0.54 · SPEI 3(0, 9)	0.54	0.48
GR02	Y = −0.50 · SPEI 3(0, 9)	0.50	0.43
GR03	Y = −0.59 · SPEI 12(0, 9)	0.59	0.52
IT03	Y = −0.52 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.52	0.48
IT04	Y = −0.43 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.43	0.36
IT05	Y = −0.66 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.66	0.62
IT06	Y = −0.70 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.70	0.67
IT07	Y = −0.74 · SPEI 3(0, 8) + 0.42 · SPEI 3(3, 12)	0.87	0.84
IT08	Y = −0.76 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.76	0.73
IT09	Y = −0.66 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.66	0.62
IT10	Y = −0.74 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.74	0.71
IT11	Y = −0.57 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.57	0.54
IT12	Y = −0.77 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.77	0.75
IT13	Y = −0.74 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.74	0.73
IT14	Y = −0.53 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.53	0.49
IT15	Y = −0.66 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.66	0.62
IT16	Y = −0.69 · SPEI 3(0, 6)	0.69	0.66
PT01	Y = −0.63 · SPEI 6(0, 9)	0.63	0.58
PT02	Y = −0.71 · SPEI 3(0, 7)	0.71	0.66
PT03	Y = −0.52 · SPEI 6(0, 9)	0.52	0.43
PT04	Y = −0.45 · SPEI 3(0, 8)	0.45	0.36