Table 3.

Models and parameter estimates for adult and pediatric patients. ZINB: zero-inflated negative binomial. NB: negative binomial. PS: Poisson. NBAN: negative binomial with autocorrelation based on number of seizures. NBAP: negative binomial with autocorrelation based on presence/absence of seizures. MSE: mea squared error $\mu$: Mean seizure frequency. $\text{ln}(\mu )$: the natural log of $\mu$. ${\beta }_0$: Intercept. ${\beta }_N$: Coefficient for autocorrelation based on number. ${\beta }_P$: Coefficient for autocorrelation based on presence/absence. $\theta$: Overdispersion parameter. b: subject-specific random effect, defined as a normal distribution with standard deviation $\sigma$. p: For the ZINB model, the zero-inflation parameter indicating proportion of zeros. BIC: Bayesian Information Criterion. $Y_{j-1}$: indicates number of seizures on the previous day. $P_{j-1}$: indicates the binary presence or absence of seizures on the previous day.

Age ≥18	Model	$\text{ln}(\mu )$	$p$	$\theta$	${\beta }_0$ (standard error)	${\beta }_N$ (standard error)	${\beta }_P$ (standard error)	$\sigma$	$\text{BIC}$	MSE		Average residual
										Training Set	Testing Set	Training set	Testing Set
	ZINB	${\beta }_o+b$	~10−6	1.021	−1.775	—	—	0.953	99888	1.933159	2.800001	0.004855725	0.06144511
	NB	${\beta }_o+b$	—	0.979	−1.766 (.03744)	—	—	0.938	99982	0.4052321	2.791609	0.002265776	0.06062727
	PS	${\beta }_o+b$	—	—	−1.767 (.03744)	—	—	0.943	106860	0.4051007	2.795019	0.0001609842	0.0587986
	NBAN	${\beta }_o+{\beta }_{N}Y+b$	—	0.93	−1.812 (.035102)	0.144 (.007801)	—	0.872	99427	0.9674286	2.798199	0.009915936	0.06344967
	NBAP*	${\beta }_o+{\beta }_{P}P+b$	—	1.128	−1.923 (.03288)	—	0.731 (.01850)	0.805	98506	0.3931279	2.801164	0.001657169	0.06086472
Age <18	ZINB	${\beta }_o+b$	~10−6	0.766	−1.627	—	—	1.169	143397	1.348431	2.470375	0.006100566	−0.0462341
	NB	${\beta }_o+b$	—	0.751	−1.621 (.04088)	—	—	1.154	143497	1.348323	2.470016	0.005209735	−0.0470346
	PS	${\beta }_o+b$	—	—	−1.621 (.04088)	—	—	1.159	158421	1.347714	2.506156	0.0001290548	−0.0533295
	NBAN	${\beta }_o+{\beta }_{N}Y+b$	—	0.903	−1.735 (.034883)	0.223 (.004592)	—	0.972	140254	2.190371	6.108528	−0.03648377	−0.1112444
	NBAP*	${\beta }_o+{\beta }_{P}P+b$	—	0.96	−1.88 (.03386)	—	1.101 (.01576)	0.935	139608	1.27116	2.568405	0.005129398	−0.0460737

^*Indicates optimal model.