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. 2017 May 12;7:1833. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-01862-6

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© The Author(s) 2017

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Probability for incidence of progression states as a function of time after infection. These probabilities are calculated separately for each infection age (in this figure this is 35 years of age), since we use age-dependent disease progression values⁴⁰ as well as mortality data³⁹. From these values, cumulative incidences as a time after infection can be calculated, and from that the average number of life years lost (again as a function of time of infection), which allows to calculate an estimate on the number of life-years saved at system-level via comparison of two scenarios. The lines of points are discontinuous because disease progression parameters are age-dependent and sometimes differ strongly between age-groups.