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. 2017 May 12;7:1833. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-01862-6

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© The Author(s) 2017

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Cumulative number of cases of liver disease progression states as a function of treatment level, calculated for a population of 1000 PWID for infections occurring over a 20 year timespan. The credible intervals given here are for 100 simulations; disease progression follows the age-dependent probabilities of⁴⁰ exactly. The lines are discontinuous because disease progression parameters are age-dependent and sometimes differ strongly between age groups.