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. 2017 May 15;17:345. doi: 10.1186/s12879-017-2365-1

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© The Author(s) 2017

Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver(http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

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Fig. 17 — Visual comparison of 1-step-ahead predicted curves generated by six methods vs. the observed curve, Region 1: The first and second methods show bigger deviations from observed curve, especially in the first half of the season. As the six methods are different configurations of one algorithm, their outputs are so competitive and sometimes similar to each other; methods 3 and 5, and methods 4 and 6 show some similarity in their one-step-ahead epidemic curve that is consistent with Horizon Ranking charts for various Epi-features