Figure 5.

Tile‐plots of the average bias in estimated within‐individual variance (${\widehat{\mathit{\sigma }}}_{\mathrm{within}}^2$) for a 01 trajectory in breeding success of an average individual for each simulation scenario. True values of state dependence (e ^γ on the Odds‐Ratio scale) and HPDH (σ _repro) are on the x− and y− axes respectively. Each panel corresponds to one of the four models used to analyze data. Vertical black lines bracket scenarios in which ${\mathcal{M}}_{\mathrm{HPDH}}$ is the true data‐generating mechanism. Horizontal black lines bracket scenarios in which ${\mathcal{M}}_{\mathrm{NTLH}}$ is the true data‐generating mechanism. At the intersection, ${\mathcal{M}}_{\mathrm{nil}}$ is the true data‐generating mechanism. Everywhere else, ${\mathcal{M}}_{\mathrm{full}}$ is the true data‐generating mechanism. Estimates from the true data‐generating model should have no bias on average. Since variances are additive, any bias can blow up with the large sample considered in our simulations of a panel of 1,000 individuals. Actual bias values (rounded to the nearest integer) are displayed on each tile